Washington (August 7, 2024)—In the hotly contested 2020 election, the result came down to a relatively small number of votes across a few key states—the same states likely to be decisive in the 2024 election. While 2020 saw historically high turnout, too many potential voters are still excluded from the process.
In a new analysis, Race and Representation in Battleground Counties, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) looks closely at the actual 2020 election data in 11 key counties in seven swing states. The numbers show significant racial disparities in both turnout and ballot acceptance—a gap that means Black and Brown voters are systematically under-represented in elections.
“It’s striking to look at the actual data from the election and see how much where you live determines whether your voice is heard in elections,” said Liza Gordon-Rogers, research associate with the Center for Science and Democracy at UCS. “People who live just blocks apart might have totally different experiences in the political process, and that has real consequences for election outcomes. Black and Brown communities are less likely to have their needs and interests reflected in government if their votes are less likely to be counted.”
The new analysis is available in an interactive map that, for the first time, shows 2020 turnout rates and ballot rejections at a precinct-by-precinct level.
Across the 11 counties in the analysis, turnout is highest among majority-white precincts (with an average turnout of 78%) and considerably lower in majority-Black (59%) and majority-Hispanic (54%) precincts. These patterns were visible even among different precincts in the same county.
In addition, these disparities grow when looking at whose ballots were actually counted. Where information is available, precincts with the lowest rate of rejections average over 75% turnout, while precincts with the highest rejection rates have turnout rates averaging closer to 60%. Communities of color are more likely to have absentee or provisional ballots rejected, while voters in majority-white precincts are more likely to have their votes counted: around 40% of majority-Black and majority-Hispanic precincts are among those with the highest incidence of ballot rejections, while only 20% of majority-white precincts fall into this category. Previous research suggests the vast majority of ballot rejections result from voter errors or clerical errors.
The counties featured on the interactive map are:
- Maricopa County, Ariz.
- Fulton County, Ga.
- Wayne County, Mich.
- Columbus, Durham, and Mecklenburg Counties, N.C.
- Cuyahoga and Lorain Counties, Ohio
- Allegheny and Philadelphia Counties, Pa.
- Milwaukee County, Wis.
These large, diverse counties provide a critical snapshot of voting patterns and will be pivotal in states that will help decide control of the White House and Congress this fall.
This analysis also illustrates that conspiracy theories about widespread illegal voting are simply false and cannot be taken seriously. These claims are used to sow distrust, challenge elections results and restrict access to the political process, amplifying the disparities that undermine our democracy.
“This data is vital to help us understand not just the last election, but future ones,” said Michael Latner, senior fellow at UCS. “It sets a baseline so we can spot irregularities or problems in upcoming elections. It helps organizations and advocates understand who’s not included in the process and gives them the tools they need to target education and turnout efforts. And it counters the disinformation that gets deployed to attack the electoral process.”
The analysis also shows the importance of clear, transparent, and readily available election data. Election data practices vary widely across states, counties, and even precincts, and better data can build trust and improve access to the political process.
For more on this analysis, check out blog posts by Liza Gordon-Rogers and Michael Latner.